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Strategies & Market Trends : India Coffee House
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To: JPR who wrote (865)5/24/1998 3:48:00 PM
From: Rational  Read Replies (1) of 12475
 
JPR, Peter, Mohan and all:

It was obvious to Indian intelligence that there was a Sino-Pak collusion against India with Pakistan attacking India to take over Kashmir and China attacking India to take over Arunchal Pradesh and other parts of NE India to secure Tibet as hinterland. China is angry because her designs were exposed to the world community. Pakistan is helpless because she is in a trap no matter what she does now about testing. Pakistan is trying to internationalize Kashmir and get heavy conventional arms in exchange for a "no-test" agreement.

In the olden days of Soviet threat, Pakistan would have gotten what she demanded. But, the entire Sino-Pak design is well-known to everyone now. Russians are very active to ensure that India is not isolated. US has already had a new policy of not arming Pakistan since the Soviets left Afghanistan.

The current US policy is based mainly on economics. US banks are lobbying for lifting sanctions against India. Clinton is under tremendous pressure due to the satellite technology transfer to China. I am thus eagerly waiting to see any change of direction in US policy towards India and Pakistan.

My prediction is that US will maintain its policy of not arming Pakistan. US will lift sanctions against India and not impose sanctions against Pakistan after India and Pakistan both sign the CTBT. US and UK will try to resolve Kashmir, but I do not know how because under the Simla accord, India and Pakistan have agreed to bilaterally solve the problem. India will not internationalize the Kashmir issue despite Pakistani demand.

Rational
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