Zeev, there's no such thing as best place ot best time to buy. We'd both been wrong trying to predict stock bottom quite a few times in the last six months. Luckily, it is a busy thread and our predictions get quickly buried in the 10,000+ messages posted since October.
I'd been averaging down from 30 in October all the way to 15 in January, periodically declaring that buying at whatever was the current level is safe. Was wrong most of the time, moreover, my buying was based on an outdated CYMI business model (single product, way too optimistic forecast of number of lasers to be sold in 98), yet eventually I'd sold 2/3 of my position above 27 and made a profit.
Now chart looks bleak again, earnings estimates for 98 are a shadow of predictions in October of 97 - yet I'd restored my position buying at 20 and at 17+. Why? Because I gave up on predicting the bottom. All I am pretty sure of is that CYMI goes down when semis are selling off and rebounds when the big money rotates back into the sector. This had happened before and there are good chances it will happen again.
If Kurlack is right and SOX is going to 200, CYMI will get cheaper and you may get your target of 13. Yet, I expect to see CYMI eventually selling well above my 18.5 current average - possibly quite soon if SOX bottoms out now. 275 seemed to hold all day on Friday. If, on the other hand, I would be following your beginning of the year opinion (CYMI going to test 13 by March), I would miss the runup from 15 to 30 and be still out of stock (I know, I could buy Pfizer or ENMD instead with this money and be better off <G>)
Regards,
Y. |
