True enough Tero! It's good to see how reality matches what was expected. Yes, 1998 was going to be the lift off year for Qualcomm as far as I was concerned. At the beginning of 1997, there was cdmaOne activity in Korea and the USA was just getting going. By the end of 1997, all technical doubts were gone and it was a question of how far, how fast. I'd predicted 7.34159 million cdmaOne handsets extant by the end of 1997 early in 1997 and got that about right.
Then during 1997 I thought 1998 would be the first real year of substantial growth with many suppliers crowding in. And here they come. Including Nokia which is doing an absolutely excellent job in the wireless industry from all I see.
I'd thought $53 per share would be the low of the new trading range [predicted about mid 1997]. With $83 the high. It got to $72. Then there was panic over Korea, so it dropped just out the bottom of my range.
Now, looking at QCOM vs ERICY share prices over the period Qualcomm has been public. Qualcomm has gone from $10 to $56 since IPO in 1991. Ericsson from $5 in 1990 to $28 in 1998. And Ericsson has paid dividends. So Ericsson is ahead by the dividends. But these things are a little up and down, so they are much the same really.
What really matters is what will happen from here. Ericsson has got enormous market share, brand awareness, experience and all that stuff. Qualcomm owns the new technology which even Ericsson now admits does work.
More later, but on those scores anyway, Qualcomm is doing very well for a company that was a fraud, with technology that broke the laws of physics.
I think 1998 is so far the lift off year. About 10 million handsets being used. Many handset makers underway. Japan launching. Korea growing. China getting underway. WLL selling now. Globalstar operational. By the end of 1998, things will be looking more substantial than the pretty good position now evident.
Maurice |
