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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (10849)5/25/1998 4:00:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
Tero, picking your post apart a bit more:

You said: "First of all, by now it should be obvious that GSM's main advantages; wide customer base, large production volumes and unique strength in handset manufacturing have given it viable in a way that most CDMA-supported did not predict in 1996. There are now no realistic prospects that CDMA will overtake GSM in the foreseeable future."

Any old technology has the same advantages over new. All that matters is the relative advantage of the new. A small difference might see the new one never catch up. A big difference will see it happen quickly. CDMA has substantial advantages over GSM. The rate of takeover is guesswork, but quick. As you say, handset design and quality is a big part of the equation, and GSM has enjoyed a long advantage there. But that is changing with Palm Pilot, Unwired Planet etc coming up quickly. Nokia will put lots of effort into making cdmaOne as successful as they can, which won't take them long, to ensure they gain a big market share. They won't leave cdmaOne as a backstop to GSM. No reason to do so. They'll put effort where the sales and profits over the next 5 years will be. GSM to be sure, but they won't want to be 10th in line in cmdaOne either.

Maurice
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