Mr. Biggs, this is my last post to you. I will tell you one last time about those numbers. Book value is based on asset value divided by number of shares. Those numbers are in their last press release. "1.98 billion cubic feet of gas and 10,000,000 tons of coal, as well as other properties that all combined, have an estimated fair
market value in excess of $200,000,000 with approximately 70,000,000 shares outstanding after the acquisition. This translates to approximately $2.85"
I called their corporate PR person to ask more details about that, to reassure myself as much as I could in this SPECULATIVE play that they were not just putting out BS. I also talked to the CEO to make sure he was aware and agreed with what was coming out of PR. If you don't want to accept this from me, fine, CALL THEM YOURSELF. It's a free country.
For price per book, I went into the oil and gas industry sector, pulled up about 100 such companies, looked at a random sample of 10 or so that have negative earnings, and calculated an average price to book of 1.5. THen I multiplied those price to book times book and that gave me $3-$4. That is just a starting point. Took me about 3 hours to do all that research. Try it, you might like it.
I looked at negative earnings because initially they will have no earnings, until they start pulling the assets out of the ground. I spoke with the CEO and asked him for his plans to do this because 10M tons of West Virginia coal is about a 10 year supply and it takes money to pull it out. He assured me about his plans, which were to begin by taking out the gas, which is the easiest, while they are finishing their geologic survey to determine the best method to take out the coal, and the minerals. He is very experienced in doing this, having spent his entire life in the industry in everything from drilling to running oil companies, so I trust his judgement.
He also told me about other plans he has, but I am under no obligation to tell you anything, call him yourself if you want. I don't expect them to have positive earnings for a while, heck most new companies don't, but once they go positive revenue, the average in the industry is at least 3 price to book. Now you are up to maybe $6 - $9 a share. Now you crank in the additional acquisitions that they are looking at, which they have not announced and which I am not going to say anything else about because it would be pure conjecture on MY part, not the CEOs. I personally believe, based on the sum total of my DD that the price will be much higher, like macker said, but I don't know when.
Now, this is my last post to you because I don't have time to do the DD and then spoon feed you every step of the way. Tell me why I should not just do the DD, keep the info I get to myself, invest my money, and make a bundle. The more of these badgering questions you pose to me, the more I am inclined to say screw it, I will just keep quiet. Besides, I could care less if you invest in ICVI or not. In fact, I would rather you not, take your money elsewhere. |
