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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (19020)5/25/1998 10:33:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (3) of 94695
 
Bill,

I started shorting the market in MAR which was a mistake. My short-term technicals indicated at the time it was a sell and yes it did drop - a big 50-100 points then rebounded to the upside even faster.

Since this strong runup began it has thrown many technicals for a loop. I normally dont follow PUT to CALL ratios and I recall that during such that also called for a SELL and that failed.

I have also noticed that some technical indicators are now showing BUY and they are not working that effectively. I am starting to wonder if the those who are seeing BUY signals now, are going to face the same problems those who attempted to play it short too early.

I too am seeing BUY signals on my short-term technicals, but I have noticed that other BUY signals which went off last week are not working well, as my SELL signals in MAR. For example, BUY signals went off last week and the DOW jumped 115 points only to lose about 1/2 of it on Thur and Fri. That same situation happened in reverse with my MAR Sell signals.

I am taking such weak reactions to the various BUY and SELL signals as a early warning sign that they could fail.

I am also coming to the conclusion that the unpredictability now of the technicals is mainly due to the TRIANGLES.

Seeya
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