WHAT IS BEYOND 2000 FOR Y2K COMPANIES Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WHAT IS BEYOND 2000 FOR Y2K COMPANIES

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To: paul e thomas who wrote ()	5/25/1998 2:12:00 PM
From: paul e thomas	Read Replies (3) of 29

I believe we need to start a real dialogue analyzing the strategies,plans and analyst comments about the growth prospects of SI Y2K firms beyond the year 2000. It is very clear that the current valuations of Y2K firms are being driven at least as much by post 2000 prospects than by the next 7 quarters earnings.Very few Y2k firms are providing clarity about their post 2000 thinking. Until this happens PE multiples will not reflect the full potential of the company. I would like people to take a different Y2k firm and DETAIL their understanding of the long term strategy,tactics, along with an onging execution critique. I will post about IMRS next week after I collect my thoughts from the Annual Meeting this Friday. I already know from a study I reported on in the SI Y2K investment thread that IMRS will have the most cash available by the end of 1999 relative to current revenues for aquisitions of any of the Y2K service companies.I plan to make new investments in Y2K firms only on the basis of post 2000 considerations as I believe the market has told us the Y2K ERA IS OVER.By this comment please don't infer I believe investing in firms that have grown as a result of Y2K are no longer attractive relative to other sectors . We need understanding of the significance of the various market opportunities,who the competitors will bein these arenas and the competitive differentials that will separate the market share winners from the losers and price premiums for a select few.We also need to talk about what will be the significance of a possible world wide recession as it might interract with the competive strengths of different players. I am looking for a thread which will have a minimum of irrelevant nonsense and concentrate on meaningful discussions. We all got to understand Y2K long before most of the analysts and the general public. This was huge advantage in 1996 and 1997 and up until the first quarter earnings were released. Unfortunately the very insights lead to myopia as we sold tickets to one another about Y2K turning around "any day now".Now that Y2K stocks have lost the PE premiums they enjoyed we can help each other again if we try to really understnd what the future holds for our favorite Y2K companies in the next century. I would like a number of you to post which company you will do the long range analysis for. I am only qualified to research IMRS. I now have access to the best analyst following IMRS. I would hope each of you who will volunteer to focus on one company will do the same. In my case all it took was to open a small brokerage account at Raymond James in addition to my regular broker.WE CAN REALLY HELP EACH OTHER IF WE TRY.OVER A PERIOD OF TIME I HAVE COME TO RESPECT A NUMBER OF YOU.LETS Get some synergy through meaningful dialogue. At the beginning lets minimize negative comments about other peoples ideas we have plenty of time for debate later on.I AM REALLY MAD AT MYSELF FOR NOT SEEING THE FOREST FOR THE TREES BY NOT GETTING OUT OF Y2K EARLY ENOUGH.I CORRECTLY FORECASTED WHEN THE PE MULTIPLES WOULD MAXIMIZE.I assumed that once the investing public knew nearly as much as I did about Y2K prospects in the 1998-1999 period they would also believe as I did that the post 2000 plans were strong for the stocks I favored in 1998. I WAS WRONG ABOUT THAT. I WANT TO AGAIN GET AHEAD OF THE CROWD. In 6 months from now there will be a very big difference in the percent price appreciation or decline among t e Y2K companies we have posted about in many places. My goal is to get a develop a real strong belief between now and the time the June Quarter analyst conference calls are availabe for reflection to finalize my bets for 1999 and beyond.

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