Charles, I Welcome Just About Any Opinion...
Long or short or day trade-esque, it doesn't matter.
There are charters out there who see bleak things for SEEK
right now. However, it would not be the first time for
charts to be wrong.
I can't argue against a chart. Arguments generated
by Technical Analysis aspire to a certain level of
scientific certitude... and it is pointless given this
aspiration to argue with what someone might see as a law
of gravity.
I wonder about Technical Analysis though. Is it
reliable precisely because there are so many who follow
it and trade stocks by it? Is it reliable in the face
of a stock or sector where there are so many events on
the horizon that can change the competitive
landscape? I wonder. (I remember Joe Granville and
On-Balance Volume as his key indicator... what happened
to Joe, anyway?) I mean, let's say according to a chartist
that a stock is poised for an upside breakout... and it
gets blindsided by a bit of competitive bad news... does
that mean the stock will be somewhat insulated from this
bad news? Or is bad news or good news irrelevant when
you look at the longer term patterns and charts of a given
stock? I'm asking these questions in all seriousness.
I think the emotional appeal of Technical
Analysis is two-fold...
* It attempts to introduce a measure of predictability
in an inherently uncertain arena.
* And it allows one to be lazy in some respects...
because it is ABSTRACT and can be applied to almost any
stock without necessarily knowing any more than the chart
in front of you. (I am not saying though that TA'ers
are lazy... because I have found them to be just the
opposite... eternally vigilant would be more the apt
description.)
As for SEEK next week, I don't know. Right now, I'm
busy researching what Motro might have meant in his
IBD New America article when he said something about
"secret software." What if there is a synergy (uncontemplated
until now) between SEEK's corporate UltraSeek server
product sales and their vision of distributed searching?
(Distributed search is that "idea" or "technology" that
SEEK got patented in September or October of last year.)
What if the concept of search as commodity is vastly
overrated and shows a lack of imagination when it comes
to all that search technology could be? What if, while
others are scrambling away from search innovations, SEEK
and Kirsch are onto something radical? These are my
Monday Memorial Day's Evening questions.
Best Regards, Charles and Other SEEKers,
c m |
