To All, Signs of a bottom. No, not reruns of NYPD Blue (they don't do them any more with the current cast). And definitely not the fluffy stock market. Commodities. Three things stand out to make me think the bottom is near for the CRB:
1. Barron's ran a piece by Cheryl Einhorn about how awful commodities look and pointed out that an investor can make as much money shorting commodities as they can buying stock.
2. People constantly tell me that they can't stand to miss the upside of this bubble stock market. I have yet to hear one person tell me they can't stand to miss the upside of palladium's bounce back. Over the last year, palladium is up more than the S&P 500, as are several other commodities. So, why can the stock market not be missed while commodities can be ignored no matter what they do? Because neophyte investors know all there is to know about the stock market. <VBG> But they think palladium is a concert hall in London and titanium is a moon of Saturn.
3. Try to find a commodity broker at a full service brokerage firm. They are there, but they are busy flogging stocks because they can't flog commodities. And when is the last time you have heard the name of a big commodities player on the business news? Warren Buffett and Jimmie Rodgers don't count, and neither do I, because we all come from a securities background. 10 years ago there were lots of commodity guys who threw around the same amount of money that sad Arabian Prince is throwing into overpriced US stocks. Those guys are either dead or holding cash.
So, my prediction for the next year is that commodity prices, as measured by the CRB, will be higher on this date in 1999. This is a truly contrarian call, as everyone knows that they are going down. Been down so long, looks like up to me.
Happy Memorial Day to all. In the fun you're having, spare a thought for the 1000s who gave their lives so we could talk trash on the Net without being marched into ovens in Dachau or frozen prisons in Siberia.
MB
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