Since I don't stocks, although I am getting tempted, all I can tell you is that I'd give you $25 a piece for your Dell shares if I was required to hold them for 10 years. (Of course, I'd give you 75 if I could turn around and sell them for 80. This is called the greater fool theory of investing. And sometimes it really really works!) Seems the market is giving you a better offer. I have never understood why this business can sustain returns much above their cost of capital. Many have asked that question, and I have never seen anybody offer an explanation beyond i) look, they do it, don't ask questions, or ii) they have a neat business model. Neat business models are eventually copied if there are no barriers to entry. I see approximately none.
Look back at the history of makers of radios, televisions, VCRs and CD players. You would not have wanted to hold those long term, if at all. Computer hardware is the same economics. Dell is indeed something special - I can't deny the track record - but its not sustainable forever.
Don't bother arguing. Bears are never wrong, just early. :) |
