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Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite !
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To: C_Johnson who wrote (3007)5/26/1998 8:19:00 AM
From: Q.  Read Replies (1) of 3736
 
re. AMAT's CMP sales, it is interesting to compare them to SFAM's:

Synthesizing info from SFAM's quarterly reports and from Carl's post
reporting what an analyst told him about AMAT's CMP sales, I get the
following, which shows only CMP sales (excluding other stuff) for
both companies:

SFAM 8/96 SFAM 11/96 SFAM 2/97 SFAM 5/97 SFAM 8/97 SFAM 11/97 SFAM 2/98
$16.3M $16.8 M $22.5 M $25.2 M $30.7 M $34.7 M $28 M

AMAT 1/98 AMAT 4/98 AMAT 4/98 bookings
$45-50 M $46 M $75 - 80 M

First of all, it's obvious that AMAT is a significantly bigger CMP
player than SFAM now.

Second, it looks to me as if AMAT held CMP sales steady recently whereas
SFAM's sales are dropping sequentially. The sequential drop of SFAM
only corresponds to a couple of machines, so maybe it isn't
significant, but just the same it isn't as good as AMAT's sequential
performance.

What's most impressive about AMAT's results are the $75-$80 M
bookings for the latest quarter that Carl mentioned. This makes it
look like they will really leave the rest of the CMP players in the
dust.

Maybe AMAT isn't taking away dollars of sales from SFAM, but it does
appear that AMAT is taking market share from them, contrary to Carl's
observation. SFAM trades at a lower multiple of sales and earnings
than does AMAT, and perhaps that is merited by the growth rates.

I own SFAM shares, so I'm not trying to knock SFAM. Maybe the
CMP market growth as a whole will be enough to overcome the market
share erosion. On the other hand, the table above looks discouraging
enough that I'm questioning whether I should be holding SFAM stock.
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