Message from Laertes Manuelidis on Nov 18 1996 12:31PM EST
Re: inside ownership of company--I don't see how you get to insider ownership of
57.5-60.4% of CIST. According to what I see on 10K, inside ownership stands at
around 35%, not including incentive options, etc.Agree that 95% figure is ludicrous.
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Layman...... sorry, I should have been more precise in my wording. Insiders *plus* Mark Capital and the Warner-Lambert V.C. group own 57.5-60.4%. You get 57.5 by adding the figures on page 19. You get 60.4 by adding the SBO figures on page 19 and dividing that figure by total outstanding shares as of 6/30/96. This last calculation would be high, as any exercise of outstanding options would increase the total outstanding.
Thanks for your comments. I feel that 1 X 10E6 is low. I estimate the U.S.-only reagent market for IL-1beta at $6-7 million, and I feel that, now that they have resources to support further work by their attorneys, CIST will rapidly ramp up to 50% penetrance. That's correct....... minus IL-6, TNF, ICE, PAI-2 and anything else that they may develop or license, I feel that revenues will easily make $3 million within 24 months. Easy.
There is virtually no other reagents company out there that, to my knowledge, has used a proprietary position to build a business around. The game until now has been to be first with a given reagent, capture market share, and move on to the next hot project. Margins are huge, given an efficient QA and marketing effort. CIST now has a chance to turn the industry, to see that patents influence the smaller reagents markets as well as pharma/biotech efforts. They can align and cross-license with other companies that plan to aggressively protect their turf. Such cross-license strategies will pay; as an investigator is buying IL-1beta from CIST (or from the R&D Systems catalog), they'll also "one stop shop" for IL-12, IFNgamma, etc. This will allow CIST to slowly leverage their IL-1 and PAI-2 patents to move into a broader product line. On top of that, TNF- and IL-6-related sales should explode in about 12 months, after CIST has time to ramp up advertising and production. IMO, sales will explode in about 18 months. I was V.P., Product Development at PharMingen (a CIST competitor) during a frantic growth in business. Taking market share from similar companies (BIOI, for example) will be, IMO, like stealing candy from a baby.
Just my $0.02. Do your own homework, as I am not qualified to make recommendations.
Rick |
