Worst-Case Scenarios zdnet.com
From the Microsoft point of view. Cranky John Dvorak weighs in again, I can't tell how seriously he takes any of this. I'll leave you with a bit of #2 of 4.
The company's own claim that it has done more for the computer business than any other company is as dubious as its reputation for copying other people's innovations and not developing any of its own is valid. The supposedly "innovative" Windows 98 has no real innovations from what I can tell, but it certainly is prettier. Note that Microsoft has added the ability to use multiple monitors, which seems to be the last idea to be stolen from the Macintosh. Now that the Mac has been drained of its ideas, what will Microsoft do?
I don't know, but they must be free to imitate! I mean, innovate!
Since Microsoft won't comply with any government deals, and since the problem stems with its leveraging the OS, I suspect the company will be busted up within the next few years. My sources inside the company tell me that various development groups are expecting this possibility and planning for it by setting up lines of communication that can be employed to maintain a de facto connection between old and new. Will we soon be seeing "Babysofts"?
In the crybaby whiner department, it's already "babysoft" enough for my taste. I've mentioned before that I'd think a straight OS/app split would be too AT&T-RBOCish, leaving intact lesser monopolies. Maybe those 2 + Fred Moody's Microsoft BIOS company. Haha. Too hypothetical, anyway, DoJ isn't talking about it at this point.
Also from Dvorak, on PalmPilot and competition:
Inside Track zdnet.com
Bill Gates predicted Motorola would be out of the microprocessor business sometime next year. Meanwhile, the company actually dominates a number of markets, including game machines, automobile computers, and--as the 3Com PalmPilot continues to sell like crazy--hand-held computers. The PalmPilot machine is based on the Motorola 68328, code-named Dragonball. There's a cartoon series in Japan highlighting a small superhero with the same name. In fact this chip, combined with the memory in a PalmPilot, is more powerful than the second-generation Macintosh, the Mac 512K. . . .
I had a long chat with the VP of marketing at Windward to get a feeling for the current state of the industry from the top developer's perspective. A couple of things came out of the conversation, including the fear that the Pilot is analogous to the Macintosh. Many Pilot enthusiasts think 3Com should license this OS and hardware design before Microsoft stumbles on the right formula. Apple waited too long, and then it was too late. This assessment may be correct, but thinking that way is hard when a cash cow is delivering good milk.
One other thing Windward told me that might concern Microsoft is that there was almost no interest from anyone in developing apps for Windows CE. I assume that there are three reasons for this: (1) Nobody is buying the Windows CE machines; (2) everyone assumes that Windows CE machines will just run the same big Windows apps that Windows 95 machines run; (3) software companies assume that eventually Microsoft will muscle them out of the Windows CE business anyway, so why bother?
I don't know about that last, but it could be true. Everybody's still hot on Java, but not Bill's version, despite Sun's spotty delivery record. So it's not unexpected that the innovators would hesitate to flock to Wince, lest they be imitated and integrated out of existence. Don't be paranoid, says Bill, but Andy Grove and others know better.
Cheers, Dan. |
