CDMA, Qualcomm, [Hong Kong, Korea, LA] THE MARKET TEST! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : CDMA, Qualcomm, [Hong Kong, Korea, LA] THE MARKET TEST!

QCOM 169.27

-4.8%

Jan 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: xiang chen who wrote (1153)	11/18/1996 4:40:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	of 1819

Xiang, Thanks for putting the quarterly/annual results in. I've also webnapped Ira Brodsky's comments from the CDMA forum. I don't think he'll mind. It sure sounds bad for GSM!! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Folks - I see that Lucent has pronounced GSM the first casualty of the PCS contest. They have decided not to produce any GSM products for U.S. PCS. The reason? GSM requires twice as many base stations at launch, and the discrepancy grows as the networks are loaded. They also pointed out that PCS operators who choose CDMA can dedicate a 1.25 MHz carrier to local loop applications; in doing so, they can achieve twice the mobile capacity. Imagine: up to twenty times analog at 13 kbps, i.e., more than twice the capacity of an entire analog cellular network in just 1.25 MHz. I think PrimeCo is advertising too much, too soon. I have never seen any business succeed by running full-page ads, nor am I sure the market is big enough yet for dedicated PrimeCo stores. Advertising should be used to stimulate word-of-mouth sales. However, the one TV ad I saw was great, as it depicts a future in which there are no taxes and the politicians have all been replaced by robots. The mobile data market is the "small potatoes" right now. Actually, CDMA is the best bet for significantly reducing airtime charges. It is also a more flexible data platform -- the only one that can offer bandwidth-on-demand. The GSM crowd is in for a rude awakening. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sooner rather than later say I. Their market share world wide is going to collapse really fast. As CDMA infrastructure prices drop, GSM/analog sites will be converted to CDMA. My guess is that the process will take maybe 5 years. Consumers' quality, battery life and price demands will force the process quickly. New sales of GSM systems will be almost finished in two or three years. Even if they give them away, nobody will want GSM as the site, frequency, other costs and customer requirements will be too important. In fact, I bet Ericsson is right now negotiating or considering an IS-95 licence so they don't get shut out!! They have already bought one for Orbitel to supply Globalstar customers. So pride has a price. Maurice

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