IDC revises estimates...
UPWARD
From the IDC weekly update 4/30/98.
Analysts: Kevin Hause, Bruce Stephen, Katrina Dahlquist,
and Roger Kay
Table 4
Worldwide PC Unit Shipments by Form Factor, 1996-2002
Unit Shipments (000)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Desktop 63,915 72,098 82,494 93,597 105,533 118,138
Y/Y% 13.7% 12.8% 14.4% 13.5% 12.8% 11.9%
Portables 14,166 16,348 19,350 22,264 25,209 28,206
Y/Y% 19.8% 15.4% 18.4% 15.1% 13.2% 11.9%
PC server 1,816 2,201 2,609 2,975 3,348 3,752
Y/Y% 40.9% 21.2% 18.5% 14.0% 12.6% 12.1%
Total 79,896 90,648 104,453 118,835 134,091 150,096
Y/Y% 15.3% 13.5% 15.2% 13.8% 12.8% 11.9%
Quotes:
The worldwide unit forecast is larger
in total size than our previously published
outlook of December 1997
On a geographic basis, the higher volume
comes from a more robust outlook for Western
Europe, ROW and the United States.. These gains
offset declines in the Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan)
forecast
The U.S. longer-term growth rate is the same
as in our last with the current 1998-2002 unit
CAGR at 11.4% versus 11.4% for the 1997-2001 in
our previous forecast. For 1998, the unit growth
rate has been boosted just slightly from
15.1%.to 15.4% with volume nearly identical to
the last forecast..
Here is the well known ASP decline as predicted by IDC.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
WW Vol 79,896 90,648 104,453 118,835 134,091 150,096
WW Rev 166,304 173,540 185,808 204,142 224,244 244,130
ASP 2,082 1,914 1,779 1,718 1,672 1,626
This is all you need to know.
Rate of change concentrated almost solely in the desktop
arena which will be the major drag on average selling prices.
IDC IS the respected source industry wide for this
data, the WSJ is not. Those of us who work in the industry
are privy to this data and monitor it weekly... things
are not flying out of control as you or the media suggest.
Dell's Q1 proved it again.
Channel stuffing and component prices are the reason behind
skewed Q1 pricing data. We all know that. It has happened
before. Who had the last word in that article and what did
he say? He is one of the more respected analysts for the
PC industry.
IDC is quick to point out that the top tier PC vendors will
actually benefit from short term price erosion as smaller
players continue to fold. They also suggest... get this...
for PC vendors to pursue higher margin and revenue
growth opportunities in such areas as PC servers,
networking hardware, services, and options.
Hey, why aren't these smart guys suggesting an aggressive
move into the sub-zero?????<ggggg>
Dell survived this hideous Q1 with only a minor chink to
the ASP armour. Why wasn't it worse? Because they are
able to grow their high margin businesses much faster than
the ASP decline in desktops.
IDC data suggest continued healthy growth and margins in
servers, workstations and notebooks where Dell is targeting
their efforts. When this growth slows to the point where
it's not enough to offset the effects of declining desktop
margins, then you can worry, I'll worry, I'll invest elsewhere.
But, look at the plans for intra/internet expansion and the
move to NT. I don't see a slowdown a comin.
I have learned not to pay much attention to those types
of sensationalistic journalism tactics as they are devoid
of any real data.
I wonder how DELL is going to maintain ASP's when their
PII400 is advertised below their ASP.
Jim, get a clue.... $30,000 servers, multi million dollar
server packages, $5500 workstations.... $3500 notebooks.
That $2399 DIMENSION desktop revenue (which by the way,
the Dimension line accounts for about 15%-20% of revenue)
is fractional. Other income is factored into ASP's as
well which have nothing to do with hardware.
I thought you were sharper than a statement like that.
Anyway, I'll let you have these pullbacks to gloat. You are
right were blind with greed... the stock price decline over
the last few days is proof that the jig is up. In fact,
it's because of declining ASP that all markets are tanking.
Prices are declining more rapidly than anyone could have
ever possibly imagined... wait, Dells ASP went from
$2600 to $2500. From Q1 to Q2 of 96 Dell's ASP dropped
from $2696 to $2520... who am I kidding?<ggg>
MEATHEAD
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