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Technology Stocks : WHAT IS BEYOND 2000 FOR Y2K COMPANIES
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To: paul e thomas who wrote (3)5/27/1998 2:06:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (2) of 29
 
Hi Paul, Nanda,

I agree that it is important to talk about the post Y2k possibilities of current Y2k companies.

However, the implicit assumption made by many investors that by and large Yk remediation will be over and done with, is wrong IMO. From all articles that I have read so far, it is very clear that remediation work will go on for (at least) another 1-2 years after 1/1/2000.

Increasingly, only the most mission critical systems will be remediated. So less critical systems that still have importance will be fixed or replaced after the big event.

Also, remediation will be done increasingly using all kinds of temporary stop-gaps. These stop gaps will have to handled after 1/1/2000.

Lots of larger data losses and data corruption will occur. It takes a lot of programming effort to fix those problems. These problems will occur before, at 1/1/200, but also up till 2001. Cory Hamasaki wrote some very interesting articles about this issue in c.s.y2k.

Remediation in countries less advanced than the US will also absorb many programmers, and the offerings of y2k companies.

Replacing legacy systems will become less and less of an option the coming months (because of the time left until event horizons will become too short). This will also be true even after 1/1/2000 for 'less-critical' systems.

Awareness and remediation action on embedded systems is typically running 1 - 2 years behind IT remediation. Therefore the peak of the work will be definitely after 1/1/2000. Just take ships as an example. Many ships will simply remain in the harbor for many months after 1/1/2000 until the systems are remediated (typically until owners offer enough money for the then very expensive engineers).

More arguments can be thought of.

Any ideas on your part? TIA!

(b.t.w. great idea to start this thread!)

Regards,

John
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