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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Srivaths Srinivasan who wrote (3238)5/27/1998 8:30:00 PM
From: Ronald Paul  Read Replies (2) of 10309
 
I'll give you my perspective. Call it the MSFT Monster throwing its weight around.

Investors are nervous about any market segment where MSFT has shown interest. The day WIND recently hit $42 a share, MSFT announced that they will be adding hard realtime features via their partnership with INTS (pSOS+) to Windows CE. Since the announcement, it has been primarily downhill for WIND.

Actual fundamentals don't matter. Witness CHKPF. Great company. Dynamite products. MSFT (Steve Ballmer) hints about entering CHKPFs market sent investors running the other direction. CHKPF never recovered.

WIND has just demonstrated another great quarter - beating estimates, etc. Doesnt matter. Given the chilly reception that WIND now enjoys from Wallstreet, maybe it will take an uncharacteristic blowout quarter to get any positive attention - however, such a blowout quarter didn't help CHKPF any (revs/profit up 100%+,etc).

It will be a long while before WIND recovers IMO. MSFT succeeded in freezing this segment until they intro their new OS in 18 months. It will be awhile after that when the dust clears. MSFT penetration into WIND's core market will fail, but it will be atleast a year after MSFT intros before the market figures that out. In my estimation, it will take about 2 1/2 years for WIND to recover as long as they continue to execute as flawlessly as they have up to the present.

--Ronald Paul
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