Note that it will not be until early 1999 that all is installed.
I listened to ETEC conference call yesterday and there were a couple of relevant points:
-They said that there was under-capacity in the business at the small feature size end.
-Further they indicated there was a shift in demand away from captive shops to merchant shops. I think that as these tools get ever more expensive captive shops will gradually find them a luxury they can no longer afford.
Therefore, I think there is plenty of room for MASK without taking business from PLAB or DPMI.
Note 1/98 announcement by DPMI on DUV mask facility expansion in CT.
I believe that also contained a reference to DPMI having some proprietary pellicles for that area. The point of this comment is that
MASK seems to have a strategy of letting DPMI and PLAB spend the R&D dollars and they will piggyback and buy the key products needed.
Somehow, I think they may fall short somewhere on experience, use and application of these tools, proprietary products, and customer relationships. (But what else can you do when you are not big enough to have a competitive R&D program?)
I looked at MASK before and thought it somewhat interesting. However,
I concluded that they did not have the resources to compete. Obviously, they have disagreed with me <ggg>. However, this will put quite a hole in their balance sheet and I would expect an equity
offering if the stock goes up.
Disclosure: I own DPMI, but not PLAB, MASK, ETEC, or CYMI.
I happen to think DPMI is possibly the best semiconductor industry related play. More products all the time with more complex chips. More complex chips have more masks. Strong trend toward smaller feature size masks which are vastly more expensive. Older generation masks generally retain their pricing. Trend from captive shops to merchant shops. DuPont relationship. Business driven by number/price of masks, not price or even demand for chips. In fact, you could make a case that poor industry conditions drive accelerated efforts to develop fancier chips. Think about these points versus any chip mfr or any semi-equipment mfr. What's the catch - How many more years will masks be used in chip-making? I am not qualified to speculate, except that I think it is far beyond Wall Street's radar screens. (Note, DPMI has a secondary offering announced, mostly of some of DuPont's holdings -
may create another buying opportunity.) |
