Scott,
Carl, RWS & I got a great bead on the EW read in early May, and we've been on track ever since (with the typical minor glitch and uncertainties). But as I posted last week on B.K. , the uncertainties were washed away as we broke through 1115 on the S & P. Just to resummarize the count to make sure we're on the same page, we have the first primary wave up off the Nov.12th low ending April 6th. From there, we began an ABC Primary wave 2 correction.
This correction has rolled out in the less common 3-3-5 "flat" formation, with A ending on 4/27, and B ending on 5/14. Seeing how C has rolled out from there is child's play, as we had wave 1 down on the S&P from the 1130 area to the 1100 area (a 30 point wave). Wave 2 of C brought the S&P back up to the 1128 area. From there, we began wave 3 of C, which in all likliehood terminated in the 1175 area this afternoon (a 53 pt. whopper!). Wave 4 of C immediately took over, and rallied the S&P 24 points so far, back to the 1099 area in globex tonight.
Because wave 1 down ended at 1100 even, this area will prove to be very formidable resistance to further up from 4, and should prove the perfect area to reestablish or add to short positions. Since wave 1 was 30 pts. in size, and wave 3 was much larger in size (53), EW guidelines say wave 1 and 5 are usually nearly identical in length.
So I'm expecting to see wave 5 down of C terminate between Friday and Tuesday in the high 1060's to low 1070's, depending on where we see 4 end (which is still in process).
From there, we will begin Primary 3 wave up of Cycle wave 5 up. It has the makings of being one of the more explosive and smooth rallys we have ever seen in a such a short interval of time, with a 15% run in the major indices between next week and the middle of July very achievable. Hope to find you on the right side of it!! (In other words, there should be no short opportunities of any significance during this time frame, save for the occasional shattering stock).
Regards,
David |
