The same could have been said about IBM , then bang - the entire computing world was IBM.
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The stakes are huge, as companies embrace networks as a way to simplify internal and external communications and slash operating costs. Corporate spending on servers alone -- the computers that run networks -- totaled $60 billion last year. According to an analysis by Gartner Group, a Stamford, Conn., research firm, Wintel technology will account for one-third of that market by the year 2000, up from close to zero in 1994.
The Wintel standard's "momentum is awesome," says Gartner analyst Scott Winkler
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WSJ: What hardware and software suppliers will dominate these corporate intranets?
Mr. Schmidt: The companies that come to mind include Netscape, Microsoft, Intel, Sun, Cisco and Oracle, to name a few. Microsoft's and Intel's lock on the corporate desktop will continue for a long time. Companies promoting the new networking paradigm will be big winners -- Sun, Cisco, Oracle, Netscape. They are all pure plays on this new model, and the pure plays usually win.
In fact, the gold rush favors the latter group. Historically, there have been these paradigm shifts, and the pure plays wind up getting a disproportionate share because they can move more quickly -- and I'm not just saying that because I'm at Sun.
Mr. Allchin: It depends what kind of software you mean. At the operating-system level, Microsoft's Windows NT Server is already outshipping all flavors of Unix combined, and it is outshipping Novell Inc.'s Netware as well. The momentum is growing at a phenomenal rate. For example, we shipped more units of Windows NT Server in August than we did in all of this year's first quarter.
But this is only part of the story. Many software companies will benefit from these corporate intranets. There is significant business for everyone.
On the client (desktop, laptop, etc.) side, Windows 95 and Windows NT Workstation will maintain their current combined market share and probably increase share.
On the base hardware side, there are many choices. Intel will continue to be the leader, but any company that supports open operating systems (e.g., Digital, Motorola) will be considered. Companies that support only a single operating system on their hardware will not be chosen in the long run because of the lock-in fear from customers.
Mr. Schmidt: Microsoft's definition of open operating system appears to be an oxymoron. Customers want interoperable choices among platforms. Microsoft defines "open operating system" as, e.g., Windows NT running on different hardware. The customer is completely locked into the decisions made by Microsoft. This can't possibly mean "open."
Windows for All
WSJ: Some people believe Windows NT will bring PC economics to the server machines and networks running corporations, and eventually sweep aside Unix machines and mainframes. Can NT be stopped?
Mr. Allchin: We have a vision to scale Windows from the smallest devices to the largest systems. We have a goal of being able to offer customers everything the largest mainframes have within three years.
Performance on industry-standard hardware using Windows NT Server provides greater price/performance ratios than hardware from companies such as Sun in stunning ways. For example, four-processor Pentium Pro systems running Windows NT Server are not only less expensive but also outperform Sun's 20-processor machine in Web and database tests.
Mr. Schmidt: The premise of your question might be correct if Windows NT did the things it is claimed to do. NT is a good upgrade for Microsoft Windows 3.1 customers who want to skip its Windows 95 operating system. There is a continuing gap between what the Unix enterprise solutions -- in particular the servers on the high end -- can do and what NT can do.
It's easy to say that NT does the things that Unix used to do, and therefore NT has done well. However, Unix moves forward as well. The latest benchmarks say the opposite about the Pentium Pro systems. Customers should test these claims out themselves. |
