>>I've ragged on this before...and have been comforted too when P&F confirms what I WANT to believe. So WHERE the hell was the warning 3 weeks ago, eh?<<
Oh <H>, there you go again. Now, before you go getting your knickers all twisted up and cutting off your circulation, note that I stated that Jan said that oil services are still in a downtrend, not just beginning one..
As far as what she was 3 weeks ago, here is an excerpt from May 13:
>>The NYSE Bullish Percent has reversed down!! into Bear Alert! (also known as the bullish thingie to some)
We are on defense people. This is the big coach and it likes to be paid attention too. Everyone who has been reading this thread should not be surprised by this and should know the risk level this presents.<<
Jan needs no defending and I don't intend to defend P&F or any other TA here, but the fact is that those who have been following P&F with Jan have been expecting the current market action and preparing to take advantage of it. I, for one, have no current exposure to this sector, but am ready with cash to commit as soon as the indicators signal a reversal.
The point is that there is no crystal ball when it comes to investing and neither TA nor FA is foolproof since both are nothing more than indicators of the present at best and the past at worst. But many different tools are useful within limits so why not use them if you know those limits and don't expect more than they are capable of delivering. After all, paying attention to traffic signals won't guarantee protection from accidents, but is that any reason to ignore them?
I don't follow anyindicator blindly or religiously like some on this thread do, but what I like about P&F is that it seems to be one of the least subjective tools available for reading the market. There is no real interpretation involved, the chart just says what it says about supply and demand, take it or leave it.
Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, while necessary and important, is perhaps the most subjective tool one can utilize, witness the recent cash flow discussion where jbe and Chuzzy could not agree even on a definition of this common FA indicator. And if you want to talk about useful, how useful can FA really be when you've got half the world saying the oil service fundamentals are great and the other half saying they stink. Go figure.
Amen (end of sermon). |
