Chromatics Color Sciences International. Inc; CCSI Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Chromatics Color Sciences International. Inc; CCSI

CCSI 28.78

-2.2%

12:04 PM EST

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To: David S. who wrote (2322)	5/28/1998 8:20:00 PM
From: invest04	Read Replies (1) of 5736

Following is a post on Yahoo today by someone named "dracla66"...this person "ain't no dummy" imho... "SPECULATION dracla66 May 28 1998 3:42PM EDT In the interest of full disclosure, I'm long several thou shares. I like CCSI's prospects for a number of reasons. Their product for bili solves a number of concers ANY intelligent parent would have, so I believe who ever distributes it will do well. Darby knows this, and I'm sure that is part of the reason this process is taking so long. She is apparently driving a hard (and complicated) bargain as I believe we'll see when the deal is done. I like the potential partners also. If the distribution agreement is for a worldwide effort, it probably will be Becton Dickinson or another very well know name in pediatric dist. If it is more of a geographic arrangement such as USA only for the first phase, the deal could be done with Hildenbrand or Space Labs. Later phases would then include other companies and additional distribution arrangements. Those kinds of deals would come sooner because they are less complex. My guess is we are going to get an international dist agreement and that is why it hasn't happened yet. Such a deal should guarantee CCSI a minimum revenue stream for three or four years from each country involved. At that point there is little risk to CCSI and will allow management to focus on other product applications with similar arrangements. What is the stock worth? The cost of a bili test is not the issue. Doctors/hospitals will market it for whatever the market will bear. CCSI will make money from the sale of the photo sensitive $8 lens cover that has to be disposed of after each and every test. Assume 45 million tests per year world wide and EVENTUALLY a 40% market penetration, and a 50% split between the company and the distributor. CCSI's revenue should be about $70MM a year with virtually no expenses (isn't the distributor hired to do all the work?). Even after 40% in taxes we have EPS pushing $3 a year with little to no risk. (Note that I never figured any profit from the sale of the machines so numbers may be conservative.) The earnings won't be there for a year or three but the market can see them coming (once the deal is announced)and will price the shares as though they were coming soon. Then there is the value of the other applications. It's not too hard to imagine this stock being a four, five or six bagger from here. Having said all of that, I'm glad I'm long. Have any of you regulars on this board heard the story about USA Today visting the company and then traveling to New Orleans for the show? USA Today does their science and technology thing every Tuesday so watch the Monday late day trading for signs the story will break the following day. It's only May. CCSI may be one of the better rides of the year."

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