Exciton - Re: "Now that I have vented, do you or anyone else on the thread have market estimates for Xeon and further down the road--Merced?"
According to one source I have talked to, Intel has forecasted the WORKSTATION market (WORKSTATIONS ONLY - not including servers) to be $90 BILLION in the year 2000.
That would "compute" to 9 million workstations at $10,000 per seat or 18 million at $5000 per seat. The actual number will most likely be closer to $5000/seat in my estimation.
The PC market (x86 machine INCLUDING INTEL-based workstations and servers) was 80 million last year and perhaps 92 million this year, possibly reaching 121 million in the year 2000, assuming 15% compounded annual growth rate.
Thus, those numbers, 9 million or 18 million WORKSTATIONS, would represent 7.4% or 14.8 % of the overall x86/MERCED market in the year 2000.
These numbers do not seem to be out of whack, based on the 15% CAGR assumption.
Bear in mind - the $90 Billion is for the complete WORKSTATION costs - not just the CPU!
For 9 million or 18 million WORKSTATIONS, assuming Intel got all the business, that could account for $3.15 Billion or $6.3 Billion in CPU revenue at an assumed $350/CPU for the year 2000.
Nice revenue if you can get it.
As for servers, I will have to dig into past sales data, which may take awhile.
Paul |
