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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 35.53-1.1%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Paul Engel who wrote (56175)5/29/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: Doug M.  Read Replies (3) of 186894
 
Paul and Exciton, as for the server data, I have an idea what it will be. When I was at the Intel analysts meeting on April 21, 1998 John Minor (VP and General Manager of the Enterprise Server Group)gave some forecasts. Minor is a very impressive guy by the way, like most of the Intel execs.

Minor said that Intel expects there to be roughly 8.6 million servers sold in the year 2001. According to recent data that I have seen there were 2.3 million servers sold in 1997. That's just about a 40% CAGR, very impressive.

Let's assume there are 4 processors per server on average and Intel gets 85% of that market:

8.6 M * .85 * 4 = 29.24 million Xeon's sold in the year 2001.

I think it's safe to say Intel can charge a lot for these processors, we know the top of the line Xeon will debut at $4000 soon. Let's say at that time they'll average $400 bucks a piece. We have an incremental revenue stream of $11.6 Billion by then. This is a lot of extra business.

These numbers are perfectly doable and not unrealistic. This doesn't even count incremental growth in their regular product lines.

This is why I'm very long Intel. However, Wall St. doesn't care about 2001, do they?

Paul, what do you think about these figures? They could be conservative.

Regards,

Doug
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