Hi EKS..I don't think IBM is interested in Novell. My interpertation of the following article is that they don't want to fight MSFT. May be Joe has something to say about this
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VarBusiness
Updated November 19
IBM To Extend Olive Branch To Microsoft
A senior IBM software official says he will explore in a meeting with counterparts at Microsoft ways in which IBM can cooperate in marketing efforts with its once partner and now archrival. Although IBM continues to promote OS/2, a challenger to Microsoft's popular Windows NT software, the executive says IBM recognizes that it needs to participate in NT marketing efforts, in addition to its NT technology development efforts. "We made a technology commitment to NT months ago, and it was one of the better decisions we made. Now we want to explore additional ways in which we can work with Microsoft," says the executive, who requested anonymity. The meeting with high-ranking Microsoft officials is slated to take place this week at Comdex. On another note, the same executive hinted that IBM will launch in 1997 a concerted effort to get more of its Lotus and Tivoli VAR partners enrolled in the BesTeam program that covers other areas of IBM software, including OS/2. "My guess is that we have to start at the top of the Lotus Business Partner Program and see if we can create incentives to get more of these people interested.
T.C. Doyle
techweb.cmp.com
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Forgetting about a possible buyout or a merger for the moment, my main concern is Q4 revenues (not earnings). The bad press we are reading almost daily about Novell stems from the fact that their products are not selling well. This is obvious from declining revenues. They have been promising since December 95 revenue growth of 15% and emphasized this position in May 96 in a big speech to the analysts. After the disaster of Q3-96 (revenues were 10% lower than projections), they stated clearly that their main objective is to grow revenues at 15% yearly starting from a base of 365M (Q3-96 revenues). These statements were posted in this board about 5-6 weeks ago, in a response by Peter Troop to an e-mail to Marengi.
This time I holding them to their word. Here is my understanding of these projections:
Yearly Revenue Growth = 365 x .15 = 55M
Quartely Revenue Growth = 55/4 = 14M
Projected Revenues:
Q4-96: 379M
Q1-97: 393M
Q2-97: 407M
Q3-97: 421M
However, the first quarter of the year has at least 3 additional holidays which reduces revenues by at least 5%. Typically, Q1 revenues are flat with the preceeding Q4. Considering this factor and in order to meet their objectives they must come up with revenues of about 386M for Q4-96 and Q1-97.
In conclusion, watch out for Q4 revenues, if they are around 386M, they are doing fine. If not, you decide for yourself, I have already made up my mind.
Regards
Salah |
