Jack, because of excess liquidity, lower interest rates, low inflation and only mild deflation here, if at all, I think that the market will continue higher. This is the general picture, but the devil is in the details. These details include, IMO, some weakness here as we speak, particularly in the high techs, which will end later in June. Then I see a vigorous (liquidity and low interest rates driven) rally to about mid August or so before we go into a more severe decline (bottom late October early November in the 8200 to 8300 range). Once this catharsis is over, the impact of the Postal money on liquidity will blow this bubble away, IMHO. I would not want to be short late this year and early next year. At least that what I see now. If the Pakistani and Indus nuke each others, than all bets are off. (VBG).
Zeev |
