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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 128.07

+0.7%

Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (12371)	5/29/1998 7:46:00 PM
From: Abner Hosmer	Read Replies (1) of 116893

Hi folks - Since I'm not a trader, I don't really pay much attention to daily fluctuations in the POG anymore. It's been obvious that we've had another big seller in the market, and I think the fundamental here is a question of how many banks want to continue to supply the market and for how long. I think the answer to "how long" is: as long as oil and other basic materials remain well supplied and cheap (probably for quite awhile), as long as productive capability remains in overcapacity (a long time), and the cost of labor in the 2nd and 3rd worlds remains well below that of the first world economies ( a long time). As long as these conditions remain intact, I think it's quite likely that parity between supply and demand will not support more than moderate increases in the POG. When the price rises due to a particular sale being completed, higher prices will provide an incentive for others to sell (especially depressed miners), as long as the aforementioned basic economic realities remain intact. I welcome your comments. best regards - Tom

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