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Technology Stocks : ATMI-THE NEXT AMAT?

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To: Asymmetric who wrote (311)	5/29/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: Charles Pape	Read Replies (1) of 677

A brief comment from a non-expert. Everyone, including the two analyst who downgraded ATMI, seems to be talking about the slowdown of capital spending, particularly in Asia. When I read the 1997 annual report it states that 73% of the company's revenues are related to wafer starts and only 27% relate to fab starts. Nothing I've read talks about a reduction of semiconductor devices being built - are wafer starts declining due to smaller dimensions or larger wafers? I'm just thinking that a 25% decline in fab construction/upgrades would only hit revenues by 8% (and I'm inclined to think this is an overstatement - spending isn't growing but it can't be stopped that drastically). Another point - earnings projections (do they have crystal balls?) dropped 10%, 4%, and negligible for 1998, 1999 and 2000. Does this justify a 24% drop? I'd be patient on this one and will probably buy additional shares after it stabilizes. Finally, I guess mentioning Jack Welch and Andy Grove in your annual report isn't a guarantee for success! Have fun. EOM

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