Sonny, about the Merced delay announcement, I posted on the other thread:
techstocks.com
To: StockMan (56334 )
From: Tony Viola
Friday, May 29 1998 9:47PM ET
Reply # of 56343
My take on the Merced delay.
I don't like it either. However, this development project is probably the most ambitious
in the history of the computer industry, including mainframes. It has a completely new
architecture, by far more complex than any chip CPU has had before; new operating
systems, compilers, and on and on. Nowadays, companies don't take on major new
architecture, new software, and oh, I forgot, new technology (0.18 micron) at the same
time. They will alternate, with new architecture, same technology, then same
architecture, new technology. Much less risk. With three major aspects changing at
once, vs. the one I've alluded to by mainframe companies, a schedule for Merced could
be construed as having roughly three times the risk. Maybe, with compounding factors
among the three, it's even worse. Anyway, these types of projects, (huge) no matter
how carefully planned and project managed by the best, and with the best technical
people, always slip about six months per 18 months, minimum. This latest delay is about
that: what was looking like about 18 months to go, is now about 24.
Maybe do the next 18 month schedule, factoring in every possible contingency/delay,
and then add six months, but don't tell the engineers.
Talk to you later. Watching a good Bulls - Pacers game.
Tony |
