Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 265.39

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Dec 2 3:59 PM EST

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To: jtechkid who wrote (19721)	5/29/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: Mr. Pink	Read Replies (1) of 70976

jtechkid, you seem to be prescient long-term but not so prescient short-term. Short-term stuff is just random walk. Don't fool yourself into thinking you can consistently make viable short-term predictions of market moves which are based on the interaction of countless variables with the investing whims of millions of unpredictable, emotionally labile investors. Its like going outside during a storm and trying to predict which way the leaves will blow exactly 15 seconds from now. It just can't be done, not even with a supercomputer, even if you could program in all the variables. To extend the analogy, maybe one can predict El Nino's next appearance or an impending long-term market downturn with some degree of certainty: these are both large scale systems with somewhat definable boundary values. On the other hand, weather patterns on the scale of a few cubic feet, or tomorrow's market moves are just totally unpredictable. My criticism notwithstanding, its clear that you are one smart guy. Thanks for your posts, I appreciate them.

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