If INTEL can really tape out the Mercede chip as it planned at the end of Dec,1998,
Then will will see the first silicon fab out in the beginning of Mar., 1999. However
few companies have the luck of making the first silicon work , So, let's assume
the silicon will not fully work untill the fourth cut, which means in Sep of 1999, Intel
will have the first workable Mercede samples available, and let's assume it will take 2 months for Intel to qualify the chip, and it will pass the quatification in the first try,
then will will have the mercede ready in Nov. of 1999. Let's say it will take another
6 months for INTEL to transfer the Mercede from R&D mode to formal production,
then we are looking at May of 2000, that Mercede can be in a production mode
and customers can start to have the chips available in big quantity. Of course, all the
above is based on the assumption everything will go as it planned. However, if there
is a major problem, like the fab crash, or a major process bug which will cause
a major low yield problem , the formal release of Mercede for production can well
slip in the middle of 2001.
Thinking about the delay of Mercede, at least one to one and a half years, we
do see a good opportunity for Alpha to take the market shares in the early stage , if
Microsoft would like to support fully and Alpha will spin off from CPQ to form
an independent company to compete with INTEL at high end CPU market . |
