Re: Looming Disaster or Minor Correction?
Since this is an "Investors" forum at heart, I thought I would throw in my $.02 on that aspect. Would appreciate other opinions too. Hopefully contrary to what I see looming on the horizon.
I'm cutting back on posting articles and comments because the news out of Korea, Hong Kong and Japan is simply terrible. This morning I even noticed some bad news out of Malaysia too. In the last week it has gotten progressively worse.
Korea is planning to arrest their equivalent of our Alan Greenspan AND our Robert Rubin. They are also going to arrest the heads of the unions that organized the last strike. If this isn't getting out of control, I don't know what is.
Hong Kong is in terrible shape. Complete disarray at the top. Their past projections to avoid economic problems have gone into the toilet and their newspaper commentaries appear to be getting desperate in writing about it.
Japan just announced their unemployment figures and were taken by surprise. It's real bad. Their spending is just coming to a grinding halt and they are even thinking about LOWERING interest rates. Talk about a weak yen. Those outrageous projections from a few months back, of 150 or 200 yen to the dollar, don't seem that crazy anymore.
To add salt to the wounds, Microsoft, Intel, and Cisco all have problems. Microsoft has an attack dog attached to it's butt, Intel just announced their "saving grace," the Merced is now two years away from launch. And Cisco's John Chambers made an incredible statement that most people didn't even notice? He said he is concerned (translation: earnings warning) about growth because of Asia. He said, get this, because of Asia I can't tell what is going to happen for the next 18 months. Eighteen months is forever in high tech time. Microsoft, Cisco, and Intel DRIVE the technology laden NASDAQ.
And to really add insult to injury we can't forget that, fairly soon, our President is going to be accused of a crime. Yikes!
I could be wrong, but the next week or two (IMVHO) appears to be a looming disaster for, at the minimum, NASDAQ. As we all know, June is a very bad month (for tech) for earnings warnings in general. Add in the, "Asia did it to me again" statement and it sure doesn't look good to me.
One reason I follow this thread so carefully, is to help predict the consequences of the Asian Crisis, and I think we are doing a pretty good job. But since doing so, I've really turned extremely bearish. I hate being a bear, so somebody tell me I'm wrong.
MikeM(From Florida)
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