GB, the weirdo that I am I took some time this morning to do some figuring. To be honest with you I was a little angry yesterday after reading the news release to find out the dividend was now a split and a few people on this thread are aware of my anger last night :)
HOWEVER, after doing some figuring I think this is BETTER than the dividend...time for a math lesson by Boob...I couldn't believe what my calculations came up with...all that anger last night for nothing lol
SCENARIO #1 (DIVIDEND - 1 FREE SHARE FOR EVERY 2 SHARES HELD)
Terms:
(a)Dividend could not be converted until October of 1999. Other shares converted in October of 1998. All on a ratio of 35 common for 1 P
Calculations and Notes:
If you own 1000 shares you receive a dividend of 500 shares. Since it is a dividend the price of the P's on market will not be reduced by 33% like a split would
1000 shares @ $25 = $25,000 plus dividend of
500 shares @ $25 = $12,500 equals total equity of $37,500
In october of 1998, 1000 shares of P convert to 35,000 shares of common. Assuming price of common is $1 that is a new equity of
$35,000 + (500 shares which don't convert til 99 @ $25 = $12,500) = $47,500 equity as at October of 1998.
In 1999, using common at $1 when the other 500 P's convert to 35 commons each (or 17,500 total) you now have an equity of $17,500 + 35,000 = $52,500
SCENARIO #2 (SPLIT ON A 3 FOR 2 RATIO)
Terms:
(a)New shares resulting from split are still converted in October of 1998. Other shares convert in October of 1998 as well. All on a ratio of 35 common for 1 P
Calculations and Notes:
If you own 1000 shares you will have 1500 shares after the split. Since it is a split the price of the P's on market will be reduced by 33%
1000 shares @ $25 = $25,000 pre-split will be
1500 shares @ $16.67 = $25,000 total equity
In october of 1998, all 1500 shares of P convert on a ratio of 35 to 1 which gives you 52,500 shares of common. Assuming price of common is $1 that is a new equity of $52,500 as at October of 1998.
As you can see in the short term a dividend would have been a much better deal. However, WE ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THIS OCTOBER TO REALIZE OUR GAINS WITH A SPLIT INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL OCTOBER OF 1999.
Was I ever excited after figuring this out...to sum it up
DIVIDEND (using VERY conservative common price of $1):
Equity value as of May 29, 1998 - $25,000
Equity value as of June 1, 1998 - $37,500
Equity value as of October 1998 - $47,500
Equity value as of October 1999 - $52,500
SPLIT
Equity value as of May 29, 1998 - $25,000
Equity value as of June 1, 1998 - $25,000
Equity value as of October 1998 - $52,500
We arrived at the final figure ONE YEAR EARLIER with the split. I now think I know why MIDL did this - it benefits the LONG TERM HOLDERS but NOT the daytraders/momentum traders because with a dividend the short term was excellent and the long not so but with the split the long term is excellent and the short not so...YEEHAQWWWWWWW...hell I had no intention of selling anyway so this makes me happy although I'm sure the lankry's of our world will be a little angry...GOOD hahhaa
These are VERY VERY conservative figures becuase commons will most likely be A LOT higher than $1 come october so if you want, just multiply all calculations by 10 or so and then the split will turn out to be an even better deal
ANy comments or changes are welcome, just Boob's math
from sad to HAPPY BOOB
|
