Hi Stockaholic, good thread
A comment on your post. The pattern you referenced, the third month of the quarter showing a larger figure is probably reflecting the bookkeeping practice of dividing the quarter up into three fiscal months of 4 weeks, 4 weeks, and 5 weeks. Almost all semiconductor firms have adopted this reporting pattern. Taking your monthly numbers and dividing them by these 4,4,5 divisors may smooth that data substantially.
And a comment on your first post. The forecast quarterly numbers especially for 99 look wildly optimistic for this bottoming perspective. I think they haven't factored in the lingering effects this downturn will have.
Some anecdotal data: Went to an annual mtg yesterday of an E2PROM mfger that has been struggling, their view of Japan - no change, Korea - a recent pickup of orders but at much reduced levels, their view on coming out of this downturn - hoping for improvements in Q4 and especially by Q1/99. Evidently not much hope yet for Q3 this year.
Heard a comment from within a large semi equip mfger: layoffs and forced timeoff continuing, no upturn expected this year, Q1/99 looks good for upturn. Some equip mfgers may be taking the risky position of shipping to orders that have been postponed or cancelled, in hopes that good times will return and these units will eventually yield some revenue, ie they are shipping at nocost hardware that would have yielded millions per unit because they have no possible alternative buyers for this inventory. Scary concept. |
