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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 336.87

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3:59 PM EST

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To: tombet who wrote (19776)	5/30/1998 9:04:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) of 70976

tombet, take a look at their balance sheet. combine that with their $100 to $200 million in losses per q going forward for a while, their inventory that is measured by a mass of tonnage now (and not a small number in front of tonnage - and increasing 50% per q to boot!) and the fact they need to really spend another $250 million per q to stay technologically competitive. they don't have the cash. they also owe $500 million to all the suckers that bought the converts last year. plus interest. they don't have very much cash left to play this game. and, contrary to current opinion, this game has just begun, imho. sure, their market cap is $5 billion. 9 months ago it was $12 billion ;-) but it shouldn't be $5 billion now. maybe $1 billion, possibly $2 billion (being oh so generous). that is why i own oct 25 puts that i will hold for the duration. they may survive, but they will be in tatters. remember, they are having all these troubles IMMEDIATELY after their most successful time in history. before all is said and done, mu will have lost money on the whole 16 mb cycle - and a lot to boot.

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