<< THESE NUMBERS WERE PULLED FROM OUTER SPACE (or somewhere else...)
Run the same model using 7 million subscribers. Run it using some
ad revenue. CD radio themselves think they can get 3.5% penetration.
(200 million commuters) >>
Ken, at this point all numbers regarding CDRD are being pulled from outer space, both literally and figuratively. While he may get over exuberant from time to time that's basically what Candle Stick is trying to say. There are many plausible scenarios for this company ranging from bankruptcy within 2 years to hottest new radio service of 2001. As for that "lawyer speak" from the filings that you mention, the reason it's there is because these are real risks that the company faces. Sure they may overcome them. But the risks are still there, and anyone investing in the company has to take them into account.
But while we're on the subject of numbers, I'm really puzzled as to where you found the ones you cite above. If CDRD is estimating that there are 200 million commuters, and that they expect to reach 3.5% of them, they are not sharing those projections with the SEC unless I missed a filing somewhere. The most relevant statement I could find came from the 10-K for December 31, 1997, which is as follows:
<<The Yankee Group, a market research organization, estimates that there will be approximately 198 million registered private motor vehicles in the United States by the end of 1999, when the Company expects to commence broadcasting. At present, approximately 89% of all private vehicles have a radio that could easily be utilized to receive CD Radio's broadcasts, with this number estimated to be approximately 182 million vehicles in 1999, and approximately 199 million in 2004. CD Radio will initially target a number of demographic groups among the drivers of these vehicles, including 110 million commuters, 34 million of whom spend between one and two hours commuting daily, three million truck drivers and three million owners of recreational vehicles, among other groups.>>
Looks to me like the core target group is approximately 40 million, and the total target group is approximately 116 million, out of a population of approximately 162 million capable of receiving the service. But I'm probably just being short sighted and unimaginative.
FWIW,
Mark |
