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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: Izzy who wrote (4409)5/31/1998 12:34:00 AM
From: ALL  Read Replies (1) of 6136
 
Expansion of the Protease Inhibitor Market

New infections (though difficult to measure) have unfortunately remained constant over the past few years. Most newly infected patients may begin combination therapy (including a PI): at diagnosis, upon reaching certain immune thresholds and/or viral titers, or upon symptom onset.

The natural course of the disease will compel presently infected individuals to seek more aggressive therapies. A vast majority of the estimated 600,000 Americans who are HIV+ but not on anti-retroviral therapies will eventually become symptomatic. Upon the onset of symptoms, the debate of whether to pursue aggressive therapy goes away. Despite the side effect profile (which IMlaymanO is relatively not severe), the continued success of PIs will induce more individuals to seek combination therapy prior to the onset of symptoms.

Given the above, the PI market will increase. A questions is: Will AIDS deaths continue decreasing? Logic would argue that they should because PIs were not widely or optimally used during the periods for which AIDS mortality statistics were available. In addition, one might argue that combination therapy is not as effective for patients in the latest stages of AIDS as many were when PIs first became available.

Another question: How long must patients continue therapy? Now it appears for a very long time if not for life.

Another question: How will other therapies affect the PI market?
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