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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (14479)	5/31/1998 12:40:00 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) of 53068

Interesting?? data on the SOX. For those who like numbers, I did some crunching on the SOX index. It has been said that technology stocks are weak in the summer and I was curious to see if there has been a seasonal tendency for semiconductor stocks to go down in the summer. I discovered that in 1994 - 1997, the SOX went UP an average of 25.8% from its close in April to its close in August. This includes the summer of 1996 when the SOX was down 17.8%. The SOX was UP over 30% during the summers of 1995 and 1997. I'm certainly not suggesting that the SOX will go up 30% this summer, but the data does demonstrate that semiconductor stocks do not have a tendency to go down during the summer months. Another interesting tidbit is that the SOX is down 1.6% in 1998 and 17.9% in April and May of this year. It is also 36.1% lower than the all time high of 405.48 that it reached in August 1997. This suggests that semiconductor stocks to a large extent have already discounted the effects of the Asian crisis and perceived PC slowdown. Have they overreacted to the downside is the question. Nobody can predict if the SOX will hold support at 255 but I think there's a good chance that it will. As I posted earlier, it could fall to 240 but there is a lot of support in that area and that is only about 6% lower. I still maintain that semiconductor stocks are in the bottom end of their probable trading range and I think it is prudent to accumulate them at this time. I'm going to do a similar exercise for the NASDAQ Composite and will post my findings when I'm done. I'll go further back than 1994 if I can find the data. Here is the data for your viewing pleasure. Notes: 1. Volatility (Vol) was calculated by subtracting the monthly low from the monthly high and dividing the result by the monthly low. It measures the percentage that the SOX moved during the month from it's lowest point to it's highest point. 2. Draw down (D-dwn) was calculated by subtracting the current month's low from the previous month's high and dividing by the previous month's high. It measures the percentage that one would be down at the close of the month if they had bought the index at its highest point in the prior month. 3. The column labeled Sum is the percentage change for the SOX from its close in April to its close in August of that year. 1994 Open High Low Close Change Chg YTD Vol D-dwn Sum May 120.45 121.34 106.92 118.42 June 121.77 129.77 112.71 119.46 0.9% 14.4% -7.1% July 119.46 147.80 115.36 118.09 -1.1% 27.2% -11.1% Aug 122.45 139.49 121.79 134.90 14.2% 15.0% -17.6% 13.9% Sep 134.90 138.07 126.74 128.76 -4.6% 8.4% -9.1% Oct 128.76 142.77 117.44 141.77 10.1% 19.7% -14.9% Nov 141.77 145.88 134.05 138.37 -2.4% 8.3% -6.1% Dec 138.37 142.45 130.21 140.08 1.2% 8.8% -10.7% 1995 Open High Low Close Change Chg YTD Vol D-dwn Sum Jan 140.11 150.50 133.86 139.51 -0.4% -0.4% 11.9% -6.0% Feb 139.51 162.16 139.51 162.16 16.2% 15.8% 16.2% -7.3% Mar 162.16 186.88 161.88 174.43 7.6% 24.5% 15.4% -0.2% April 174.37 198.29 169.65 197.25 13.1% 40.8% 16.4% -9.2% May 197.81 235.64 192.71 214.07 8.5% 52.8% 21.8% -2.8% June 214.43 252.87 214.43 244.00 14.0% 74.2% 18.0% -9.0% July 243.99 290.38 242.73 282.15 15.6% 101.4% 19.5% -4.0% Aug 282.33 301.80 254.81 275.63 -2.3% 96.8% 16.7% -12.2% 39.7% Sep 275.19 303.85 256.65 275.08 -0.2% 96.4% 17.1% -15.0% Oct 275.08 278.51 223.75 254.60 -7.4% 81.8% 19.9% -26.4% Nov 254.60 261.18 209.22 227.51 -10.6% 62.4% 20.4% -24.9% Dec 227.92 232.65 190.06 200.66 -11.8% 43.2% 18.7% -27.2% 1996 Open High Low Close Change Chg YTD Vol D-dwn Sum Jan 202.36 204.76 163.77 186.73 -6.9% -6.9% 20.4% -29.6% Feb 186.33 211.99 185.82 186.18 -0.3% -7.2% 14.0% -9.2% Mar 185.29 190.76 165.80 175.99 -5.5% -12.3% 13.4% -21.8% April 176.30 215.36 173.27 206.09 17.1% 2.7% 23.9% -9.2% May 205.58 216.93 186.83 205.92 -0.1% 2.6% 14.6% -13.2% June 205.29 206.40 167.87 174.71 -15.2% -12.9% 18.7% -22.6% July 175.94 181.12 138.98 155.94 -10.7% -22.3% 24.1% -32.7% Aug 156.33 179.17 155.32 169.46 8.7% -15.5% 15.3% -14.2% -17.8% Sep 171.51 199.03 159.77 187.46 10.6% -6.6% 23.2% -10.8% Oct 186.26 206.59 181.46 187.10 -0.2% -6.8% 13.4% -8.8% Nov 186.98 238.97 186.47 237.94 27.2% 18.6% 28.1% -9.7% Dec 237.25 257.72 232.13 240.30 1.0% 19.8% 10.8% -2.9% 1997 Open High Low Close Change Chg YTD Vol D-dwn Sum Jan 240.61 290.72 234.73 288.73 20.2% 20.2% 23.3% -8.9% Feb 288.73 291.59 261.98 272.93 -5.5% 13.6% 10.3% -9.9% Mar 272.93 288.25 247.22 268.85 -1.5% 11.9% 15.0% -15.2% April 268.85 300.00 253.38 283.26 5.4% 17.9% 17.3% -12.1% May 283.26 332.60 282.90 311.25 9.9% 29.5% 17.5% -5.7% June 311.25 318.06 285.58 305.74 -1.8% 27.2% 10.4% -14.1% July 305.74 369.50 305.05 366.24 19.8% 52.4% 21.1% -4.1% Aug 377.19 405.48 368.81 373.20 1.9% 55.3% 10.0% -0.2% 31.8% Sep 373.20 398.35 369.63 381.60 2.3% 58.8% 7.7% -8.8% Oct 381.60 393.76 275.28 301.90 -20.9% 25.6% 31.0% -30.9% Nov 301.90 331.27 270.98 290.65 -3.7% 21.0% 20.0% -31.2% Dec 290.65 305.73 242.82 263.63 -9.3% 9.7% 21.6% -26.7% 1998 Open High Low Close Change Chg YTD Vol D-dwn Sum Jan 263.63 294.56 242.79 289.13 9.7% 9.7% 19.6% -20.6% Feb 297.04 330.60 296.24 316.43 9.4% 20.0% 11.9% 0.6% Mar 316.38 317.58 282.08 298.70 -5.6% 13.3% 11.2% -14.7% April 293.56 326.06 285.45 315.89 5.8% 19.8% 13.6% -10.1% May 315.89 321.63 259.31 259.31 -17.9% -1.6% 19.7% -20.5% -17.9% June ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Average 2.2% 17.0% -13.3%

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