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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 262.31

-1.2%

10:18 AM EST

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To: shane forbes who wrote (19785)	5/31/1998 5:33:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (3) of 70976

shane, maybe, maybe not. your theory that dram will recover next year was put forth last year when next year was now. NOT! ;-) mu's survival, albeit likely, is not a sure thing. how long can they lose $400 mil in cash flow a q? how many cycles can turn out to be net money losers like the entire 16 mb cycle? how long can a management be so full of crap before they lose all trust? do you know why mu isn't a $3 stock now? b/c everyone believes the market will turn shortly. guess what? as long as everyone thinks the market will turn they continue to ramp production so they don't miss it. the market will not turn until people give up on the dram market and that will be reflected by a real low mu stock price. we only have about 15-20 more points of a drop before i'll even consider that a turn in dram is near. that may take a while. but, i hope not as i'd like a quintiple on my oct 25 puts ;-) jmho.

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