robert, I agree that electronics use is going to continue to increase, however, I feel have started a cyclical down period in margins and pricing power beginning in mid 1997.
The currency crisis is moving to Latin America so you can nix them off the list, the mexican peso has dropped like a rock recently. During the last few quarters earning warnings, Intel has blamed Europe for missing, so all we have left is the good ole US of A, who is fully margined on personal, business, and govt debt and is fully invested in a stock market valued much higher than any peak in this century by just about any measure.
I believe most people have treated Intel as a growth company and ignored the fact that it is a cyclical business (and have ignored the stock market is also a cyclical business) and have continued to bid it up in the face of declining earnings, because next quarter "will be better".
I think the street is now realizing this case and the distribution head and shoulders pattern (can anyone come up with a good downside target for that pattern?) that began in early 97 is about to come to fruition. Darn why did I sell my puts, oh well there is always amazon.dog.com -g-
Kurlack has been right and all the bears have been right, just bad timing in the face of the mania.
bwdik - imho
bobby
I was looking at the AMAT chart last night and thinking you could pretty closely match it up to the Hang Seng chart. Interesting, huh.
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