Mark, the 3.5% market penetration was taken from Unterburg's Analysis. It was available thru CD Radio's web site about a year ago but they decided to take it off, too promotional. The company will not comment on what they think the market penetration will be, and I don't blame them. All the numbers, one could argue, are being pulled from outer space but 3.5% seem conservative to me and it's a number that is being widely used <Soundview, Merrill Linch, Unterburg, Lehman> and can not disproved until 2001-2002, so until then the analysis is/was going to be based off 3.5%. I guess what I'm saying is that whatever we believe the market penetration <I say 10%, someone else says 1%> is almost irrelevant because the analysts were/are going to be using 3.5%. Now, with the 50 channel upgrade and commercial revenue sharing the analysts will be upgrading everything. . ML and Lehman have target prices before channel/revenue additions of 49 and 45 respectively. We will see how far they upgrade year end prices.
cheers. |
