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I notice that Bob B. has gone from saying Y2K is "not a big deal" to yesterday saying "it will be a big deal." IMO, it is already a big deal in terms of what companies and governments are spending to remediate and the problems that are already turning up (like computers issuing instructions to dump tons of inventory that is date-coded "00" and the computer thinks it's 98 year old stuff). The thing I find fascinating about Y2K as an economic issue is we know, down to the second, that it's coming and when it's coming. We don't have that luxury with most events that rattle the markets, like wars, political upheaval, currency collapses, interest rate hikes, etc. This is good from the standpoint that we can plan for it (and perhaps even profit from it by investing in the right Y2K remediation companies) but bad from the standpoint that over-reaction and fear can make Y2K problems a self-fulfilling prophesy. For example, if everyone decides to bail from a certain company's stock or a certain country's economy, because of Y2K concerns, then sure enough, that company or country is going to suffer mightily. For this reason, I think it behooves a company (or country) to let the public know where it is in terms of Y2K compliance. Enlightened companies are doing this. Vanguard Funds, for example, recently issued a very reassuring message regarding their Y2K program. If a company is evasive about Y2K, that is a danger signal to me. |
