LLY is starting to look real interesting here at the 61 3/8 level. Will it go lower? It's a falling knife and there's support at the $58 level, but the co. has so much going for it I wonder if it will actually test that level.
The co's Evista drug has been approved for prevention of osteoporosis, but sales have been lagging. Now strong evidence is out that Evista not only prevents osteoporosis but also significantly reduces the risk of breast cancer and uterine cancer. The chief competitive drug actually INCREASES the risk of uterine cancer.
Although Evista has not been officially approved for use in preventing breast or uterine cancer, doctors and the public are increasingly aware of this and sales should start increasing. Evista may soon become a drug of choice for women. Think if it, they can prevent osteoporosis, breast cancer, and uterine cancer all with one drug. The competition increases the risk of cancer. Evista has BLOCKBUSTER potential, which LLY needs since they lose exclusive rights to Prozac in 2004. Comments appreciated.
Eli LiLLY Forecasts Strong Growth On Wider Uses Of Key Drugs
May 28, 1998 1:04 PM
INDIANAPOLIS -(Dow Jones)- Eli Lilly & Co.
projected a rosy future Thursday, as it said key drugs
will boost sales growth and profitability while it will try to
maintain its hold on the depression market despite the
loss of patent protection for its ubiquitous Prozac drug.
The pharmaceutical company (LLY) expects sales
growth of 15% to 20% and earnings per share growth
of about 20% this year, as well as strong sales and
earnings growth in the next several years.
Also Thursday, the company said the board authorized a
$2 billion share repurchase program to be completed by
the end of the year, including the $525 million in
common shares already purchased. Eli Liily said
repurchased shares may be retired or held for use in the
company's equity compensation programs or for other
general purposes.
Indianapolis-based Lilly said it is pursuing new
indications for all of its key drugs, including Prozac;
Evista, which is currently approved for osteoporosis;
Gemzar, which is cleared for pancreatic cancer;
Humalog, used against diabetes; and ReoPro, which is
used for a variety of coronary applications.
Of all its drugs, Evista has made the biggest news splash
lately. It belongs to a class of drugs known as selective
estrogen receptor modulators, or SERMs, and is
believed to also block the development of new breast
cancers.
If further trials comparing Evista with another breast
cancer drug, tamoxifen, show favorable results in
preventing cancer, Lilly may very well have a
blockbuster on its hands. Evista doesn't seem to carry
the risk of uterine cancer that tamoxifen does. It may
also prevent heart disease and reduce so-called bad
cholesterol.
Lilly said it will focus "more resources on its marketing
and leveraging an ongoing flow of clinical data
supporting a strong and broad profile for Evista."
Regarding Prozac, Lilly said it will come up with a new
formulation of the drug, a combination Prozac drug, and
"one or more new chemical entities for depression." The
U.S. patent on Prozac expires in 2004, opening it up to
generic competition.
Following Lilly's announcement, Moody's Investors
Service confirmed the company's Aa3 long-term debt
and counterparty ratings as well as the company's
Prime-1 rating for commercial paper.
Copyright (c) 1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc |
