>>> It was heavily shorted by non-believers in the low 20s and those guys paid big and learned a lesson.<<<
What would that lesson be? That there is risk in taking a position? That no matter how much due diligence you do the market can turn around and confound you, so no matter how sure something looks one should diversify across a wide variety of positions? What lesson was learned by the people that jumped on BOST long in the 30s and 40s? How about the CLCX longs? Are you using YURI to argue against going short? I'm really not sure I understand what you're trying to say.
Perhaps the lesson is to stay away from companies that are showing a profit, or high RS stocks, at least until they break. That would fit as well with CLCX and BOST. I must admit that I'm content staying with shorting the FIBRs, CFONs, SOLVs, and PNDAs of the market.
I learn a lesson from every position that I take, whether I win or lose. I learned from my short of ZITL at 36 (pre split) and cover at 39 1/2 (now around 16 pre split). I learned from my short of SOLV at 7 1/8 and cover at 4 1/8 (now at 0 7/8). One winner, one loser, same lesson...patience pays. But overall I know that having short positions in my portfolio reduces risk in the long term, and actually smooths the return. The fact that the short side of my portfolio has outperformed the S&P is more of a pleasant bonus.
Hey, CFON is still above 5, and they released the 10K on Friday...I think I'll be putting the lessons I learned from ZITL and SOLV into play, and being most patient with that position. I'm actually very tempted to dump my entire portfolio into a CFON short position, but will not, because I know there's no such thing as a sure thing on Wall Street. Of course if you can't argue in favor of going short CFON, I'm not sure there is a company that is a candidate.
Barb |
