The analysts are continually trying to keep up with the perceived
reality of the future. One of the ways to check that trend is to
review Zack's recommendations of earnings estimates over a period of
time. Choosing the last three weeks, the following table can be
shown.
Using the week closing 5/8 as the reference week, and the week
closing Friday, 5/29, a comparison can be made with Zack's
estimates for each company then versus now. All data is on a per
share basis. As an example, the first entry in the table, EGLS, had
an estimate reduction of 0.76/share this year and 0.43/share next
year for a total reduction of 1.19/share.
At the bottom of the table there are some positive numbers. These
must be evaluated carefully to determine why. PLAB was the only stock
in the group that did not have a change in estimate for the three
week period. PHTN was bumped up 0.02/share for this year, but had
no estimate for next year. MASK had this year's estimate bumped up
by 0.01/share. DPMI had a positive increase for both years. TGAL
did not have an estimate for next year for the week closing 5/29,
therefore data is inaccurate. ASYT during the three week period had
a "rollover" of the estimate for next year to the current year and
then a new estimate made for the next year. And finally, NANO had
an estimate of 1.02/share for the next year closing 5/29, but had no
estimate for next year closing 5/8.
In other words, PLAB, MASK, PHTN and DPMI did not lose ground or had
an increase in estimated earnings for the three week period. For the
others, there is no meaningful basis of estimate.
Finally, for the group, there was a 19 percent reduction in earnings
estimate for this year and a 11 percent reduction in earnings
estimate for next year.
DIFF DIFF SUM
SYMBOL COMPANY CURR YR NEXT YR DIFF
EGLS Electroglas -0.76 -0.43 -1.19
WJ Watkins Johnson -0.67 -0.32 -0.99
KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries -0.53 -0.45 -0.98
MICN Micrion -0.46 -0.51 -0.97
CFMT CFM Technologies -0.59 -0.34 -0.93
COHU Cohu -0.67 -0.23 -0.90
WFR MEMC Electronic Materials -0.27 -0.55 -0.82
IPEC Integrated Process Equipment -0.30 -0.46 -0.76
SVGI Silicon Valley Group -0.40 -0.34 -0.74
CMOS Credence Systems -0.10 -0.61 -0.71
KLAC KLA Instruments -0.19 -0.42 -0.61
PRIA Pri Automation -0.24 -0.32 -0.56
UTEK Ultratech Stepper -0.36 -0.19 -0.55
TER Teradyne -0.27 -0.28 -0.55
IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems -0.30 -0.20 -0.50
ASEC Aseco -0.07 -0.43 -0.50
NVLS Novellus Systems -0.29 -0.20 -0.49
ETEC Etec System -0.23 -0.23 -0.46
MTSN Mattson Technology -0.18 -0.27 -0.45
AMAT Applied Materials -0.15 -0.23 -0.38
LRCX Lam Research -0.08 -0.22 -0.30
SMTL Semitool -0.14 -0.15 -0.29
HELX Helix Technology -0.24 -0.05 -0.29
FSII FSI International -0.10 -0.18 -0.28
GSNX Gasonics -0.19 -0.09 -0.28
SFAM SpeedFAM -0.03 -0.23 -0.26
ASMLF ASM Lithography Holdings -0.13 -0.03 -0.16
SFLX Smartflex Systems -0.09 -0.05 -0.14
LTXX LTX -0.06 -0.08 -0.14
CYMI Cymer -0.10 -0.02 -0.12
VECO Veeco Instruments -0.04 -0.07 -0.11
ATMI ATMI Inc -0.05 -0.05 -0.10
AFLX Adflex Solutions -0.03 -0.02 -0.05
BRKS Brooks Automation 0.06 -0.07 -0.01
PLAB Photronics 0.00 0.00 0.00
MASK Align-Rite International 0.01 0.00 0.01
PHTN Photon Dynamics 0.02 0.00 0.02
DPMI Dupont Photomasks 0.04 0.07 0.11
TGAL Tegal 0.30 0.24 0.54
ASYT Asyst Technologies 0.23 0.31 0.54
NANO Nanometrics -0.05 1.02 0.97
TOTALS -6.94 -6.25 -13.19
PERCENT CHANGE -19 -11 |
