Re: I expect the price of the average
PC compatible computer purchased by the public to be
in the $100 to $150 range within 3 years..
Now way no how. You need to rethink your prediction. We are
now very close to the bottom in price points. You still
wont be able to manufacture a decent monitor for less than
$100 3 years from now much less and entire PC. You may
be referring to set top boxes and the like which are not PC's
but do have limited functional similarities. Here is a quote
from Linley Gwenapp VP of the Microprocessor report.
Dvorak is correct that there is a class of people that want only to surf the Web and balance their checkbooks. PC makers are madly trying to build sub-$500 PCs for these customers. I think this is folly.
First of all, trying to squeeze another $200 out of today's bare-bones $699 PC is tough. The total semiconductor content of these systems costs about $100, so even if Moore's Law drives this down to zero, we're still a hundred dollars short. The rest of the system is motors and metal that aren't likely to get much cheaper in the near future.
More important, the PC is the wrong platform for such simple tasks. An information appliance, such as a Web TV, can easily handle them, with a user interface that is friendlier and simpler to use than a PC's. These devices can reach much lower price points by eliminating the disk drives, CD-ROMs, and large memories required for PC compatibility.
Although the sub-$1,000 PC will remain a significant part of the PC market, its popularity may wane over time. Low-cost information appliances will eat into this segment from the bottom, while new software will drive other buyers toward the high end. Dvorak's comment that desktop computing is dead is rather strange and is part of the typical Dvorak boosting practiced in his columns. Instead, I think the desktop PC, at price points above and below $1,000, will continue to thrive, complemented by a growing number of low-cost information appliances.
This argument (it it's entirety) by far makes more sense than any other I've seen.
MEATHEAD |
