Doug, I pretty much agree with your assessment, and as you point out, you do need to explicitly state baseline outcomes. For example, if a market is continuously rising being out of the market for even a short period of time will result in a loss of return. Conversely, in a continuously falling market being in the market for even a short period of time costs return. But if you look at the period under examination you will see that there were some significant retrenchments as I recall in 1994 and in the middle of 1996. Nevertheless I agree, using what is basically a bull market period injects a bias. I think the point however is that we now how some real world evidence favoring a buy and hold strategy. The traders have long contended that they could improve performance of that strategy even in bull markets.
I tend to stay fully invested all of the time, so buying on dips is generally not my approach. I do believe, however, that it is prudent to rebalance your portfolio periodically. I am uncomfortable with margin, so that is never a consideration with me.
I don't want to give the impression that I adhere to buy and hold indiscriminately. When investing in growth stocks the clear signal to get out is when something compromises the long-term growth outlook of the company. That, by the way, is the reason that SI is so valuable. It allows me to monitor long term trends through the eyes of some very technologically savvy people. Given my total lack of expertise in this area SI is really a godsend.
Doug, as always your posts are interesting and very well thought out.
TTFN,
CTC |
