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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Pancho Villa who wrote (9387)5/31/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Investor-ex!  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
Pancho,

Thanks for posting that 10Q excerpt. I agree with your CSCO assessment. A good company, but CSCO may be in for some rough times ahead.

Apart from Asian exposure, whenever I consider CSCO, the very likely increasing impact of Y2k remediation on corporate I/T expenditures immediately comes to mind. If I/T budgets are ballooning to fix this mess, and there is some very good early evidence that they are, I can't see how CSCO can materially participate in Y2k spending. Quite the contrary, I see CSCO's router markets stalling or even contracting as more and more dollars and personnel are redirected toward Y2k repairs. Well, sure enough, right in the middle of the 10Q you posted, management admits as much.

If there is a general tech sell-off, CSCO will not escape unscathed.
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