Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 254.48

+0.8%

1:26 PM EST

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To: shane forbes who wrote (19799)	5/31/1998 11:35:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (2) of 70976

think skeeter has brought up an interesting point. mu is very exposed because of its heavy reliance on dram, and the market needs capacity to come out of it somewhere for it to regain health... not saying mu is going bust tomorrow, but it has been hemorraging cash for 6 Q's at least... but this leads to a bigger question.... it now seems likely that the recovery from '95-96 lows was based on a false premise, and that the fundamental problems which caused that downturn have not been fixed (uneconomic dram production caused by subsidy by governments and corporations who believe that fabs are strategically close to godliness)... my question is therefore... GIVEN THAT THE MACRO SITUATION IS FAR WORSE THAN '95-96 - as CPU has joined dram in the bargain basement, and liquidity is hard if not impossible to find for $3 billion boondoggles, and given that AMAT's guidance for next Q is 20cents (after the most recent charge) and falling, and given that it is probable (at the current rate of revenue decline - and without miracle third months; which will get harder to come by) that AMAT will lose $$$ in the 4th quarter - WHAT WILL STOP AMAT FALLING TO $11... I've been searching for the answer as I look to re-enter a stock I bought at 13 (pre split) and sold at ($100)... and have been trading ever since --- and I honestly cannot find an answer --- as the truth is that even bubbles don't support companies with declining revenues for very long....

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