>Any insights appreciated. I remain long on PRIA.... hopefully not tooooo long.
insights? perhaps..."patience is a virtue?" or given that we may be in for a lengthy respite, "2001: a space odyssey?" wait, i got one: "i, pri automaton" or "i'm torn; a utopia?" how 'bout "a minor iota put?"
pri automation anagrams.
sorry, past my bedtime.
while a tad dated, the following excerpts are much more credible insights.
Industry slips on transition to 300-mm wafers
Electronic Engineering Times, 4/2/98
By Peter Clarke
GENEVA -- In the last few months the timetable for the semiconductor industry's transition to 300-mm silicon-wafer processing has slipped back by about a year, according to George Lee, director of the 300-mm initiative within the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade association.
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Based on discussions with chip firms, Lee has recently changed his predictions. He has reduced the forecast from seven pilot lines running by late 1998 to just two and pushed back the start for the first low- and medium-volume fabs from 1999 to 2000. The ramp of high-volume fabs is being pushed back even further. Whereas the SEMI prediction, based on knowledge of semiconductor makers plans, was for a steady flow of high-volume fabs coming on-stream starting in 2000, the prediction is for nothing to start before 2002.
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Lee said the reasons for the delay included the Asian financial crisis, general overcapacity in silicon manufacturing and the continued lack of demand for DRAMs. This has hit Asian and Japanese chip makers in particular. "Price pressure inevitably effects the ability to fund major programs," Lee said.
"The economic reason for the transition is still on the horizon. It will kick in when we see a hardening of the DRAM market."
Another factor in the delay is the lack of complete tool chains to make and process 300-mm wafers. According to reports circulating at Semicon Europa both I300I, the Sematech (Austin Texas) 300-mm wafer consortium, and Selete, the equivalent Japanese consortium, are behind in their projected schedules to demonstrate 300-mm capable tools. Part of the problem is acceleration in the expected move to finer processing geometries. Instead of introducing 300-mm wafers at 250-nm minimum geometries, equipment makers are being asked to provide 180-nm and 150-nm geometry capability.
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While other chip makers have delayed plans for the 300-mm transition or are waiting for the equipment industry, Siemens and Motorola have taken the lead with their Semiconductor300 joint-venture in Dresden, Germany. First is a place senior managers of many semiconductor makers said they didn't want to be during the wafer transition. The accepted wisdom was that lead adopters paid a high price pathfinding for the industry. IBM is widely credited with having pioneered the transition from 6-inch to 200-mm wafers.
"The situation is not analogous. IBM paid for silicon development, and paid for tool development. The existence of I300I and Selete changes the game. The semiconductor equipment and materials industry is paying for the transition this time," said Lee.
"Why wouldn't you want to be first?" he asked. "They [Siemens and Motorola] may pay now but they may get to higher yields quicker. It's like being the only race car on the track. You are going to win as long as you finish the race."
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